On 15 October 2026, the Turkish Ministry of Trade confirmed that Turkey and the EU will cooperate on the green transition, the circular economy and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The announcement came out of the third Turkey-EU High Level Dialogue on Trade in Brussels. It is a welcome signal. It is not a solution. While the dialogue was happening, Turkish steel exports to the EU were already down 21.7% year on year for January to August, at 3.2 million tonnes. Politics moves in years. Your customers’ purchasing decisions move in quarters.
This piece builds on reporting by Eurometal and Platts (S&P Global), which we credit in the sources below. Our question is the one a Turkish mill owner or export director should ask: what does this dialogue change for me, and what does it not change?
What actually happened in Brussels
Three things came out of the meeting. First, both sides confirmed they want to cooperate on the circular economy and CBAM. Second, Turkey pointed to its new Emissions Trading System, published in the Official Journal on 27 August, as proof that it is aligning with EU climate policy. Third, Ankara raised its expectation to be treated as an equal partner in the EU’s Industrial Acceleration Law, the “Made in EU” agenda, arguing that the 30-year-old Customs Union has integrated the two supply chains too deeply for Turkey to be treated as just another third country.
All three are real. None of them lowers a single invoice in 2026 or 2027. CBAM applies to Turkish iron, steel and aluminium today, the definitive period has started, and EU importers are already building certificate costs into their purchasing decisions.
The pressure is already visible in the numbers
The Turkish Steel Producers’ Association estimates that the new EU steel safeguard measures introduced in July, combined with the industrial policy shift, could cost Turkey around 4 million tonnes of steel exports to the EU per year. The January to August figures show the trend has started: down 21.7% year on year. Platts assessed Turkish exported rebar at $615 per tonne FOB on 14 October, a price that leaves little room to absorb additional carbon cost at the border.
The EU is Turkey’s traditional top export destination for steel. When that market gets more expensive to enter, “we are talking with Brussels” is not a strategy. Data is.
This is the part many exporters misread. The safeguard measures and the Industrial Acceleration Law are political, and Ankara is negotiating them. CBAM is different: it is a calculation. An EU importer buying Turkish steel pays a price that depends directly on the emissions data the Turkish supplier can prove. That part of the problem is entirely within the exporter’s control.
Turkey’s own ETS: the right foundation, not yet a discount
The new Turkish ETS matters, and it is genuinely good news for the medium term. A domestic carbon price is the precondition for any future deduction under Article 9 of the CBAM Regulation, which allows EU importers to deduct a carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin.
But three things must line up before that deduction is worth real money: the European Commission must finalise the implementing rules for Article 9 (still in draft), the Turkish price must actually be paid and documented at installation level, and the EU customer must claim it with certified evidence. Vietnam’s pilot ETS, which we analysed recently, shows the same pattern: free allocation in the early years means there is little paid price to deduct. Expect Turkey’s scheme to follow a similar curve.
The smart reading: use the Turkish ETS as your monitoring backbone. The installation-level measurement, reporting and verification discipline it requires is almost exactly the discipline your EU customers need for CBAM actual values. Build it once, use it twice.
What a Turkish exporter should do in the next six months
- 1.
Calculate your exposure per product and customer
Default values versus your actual emissions, for 2026, 2028 and 2030. This turns CBAM from a policy topic into a margin discussion your board can act on.
- 2.
Treat your ETS monitoring plan as your CBAM data pack
Align meters, records and responsibilities with the EU method for installation-level emissions. The same numbers should feed both systems.
- 3.
Document precursors and production routes
If you buy billet, slab or hot-rolled coil, know its origin and embedded emissions. Electric arc furnace producers have a structural advantage over blast furnace routes, but only verified data converts that advantage into a lower border cost.
- 4.
Book verification capacity early
Accredited verifiers must visit the site, and capacity across the region will be tight in the first annual cycle. The first EU declarations for 2026 imports are due by 30 September 2027.
- 5.
Put data into the sales conversation
Agree with your EU buyers which data you deliver, in which format, and how verified values are reflected in price. A supplier who lowers the customer’s CBAM bill is a supplier who keeps the contract.
Know your number before Brussels and Ankara finish talking
Our free CBAM Readiness Assessment shows which of your products are in scope, what default values would cost your EU customers, and where your data gaps sit. It takes about 15 minutes and ends with a review by our CBAM team.
Start the free CBAM Readiness AssessmentSources and editorial references
- Eurometal / Platts (S&P Global), “Turkey and EU to cooperate in green transition and CBAM”, 16 October 2026 (eurometal.net)
- Turkish Ministry of Trade, statement on the third Turkey-EU High Level Dialogue on Trade, 15 October 2026
- Turkish Steel Producers’ Association statement to Platts on EU steel safeguard impacts
- Regulation (EU) 2023/956, Article 9 (carbon price paid in a third country), as amended
- Official Journal of the Republic of Turkey, Emissions Trading System regulation, 27 August 2026
This article is our own analysis. Figures and facts from third parties are attributed to the sources listed; all rights remain with their owners. Nothing here replaces a calculation for your own installation and product mix.
Fikriye Seda Atabek
Fikriye Seda Atabek is Partner and Country Manager for Türkiye at wis.dom|bridge™. She works with manufacturers and exporters on carbon accounting, verification readiness and practical CBAM implementation.
